..but it’s not. It’s doing exactly what it’s supposed to do.
This is a VERY good post about the fundamental limits of predictive analysis. It also proves my theory that government (NSA) snooping isn’t about finding terrorists because it can’t. It’s about digging up dirt on political enemies, which is what secret police have ALWAYS been about.
“All this should arouse a sense of humility about our ability to predict events, risks and crashes of one kind or another. In other words, risk cannot be entirely eliminated. Beyond a certain point, we’re sacrificing treasure, civil liberties and energy for not just zero gain but negative return, as the treasure squandered on the quixotic quest for zero risk carries a steep opportunity cost: what else could we have accomplished with that treasure, effort and energy? ”
That would be a valid question if the goal of Total Information Awareness was legitimate. Unfortunately it’s not. It’s about protecting the political class and they don’t care how much we have to pay for it.
Great post. Typically a False Positive has negative value to the people that run a system (it raises the cost of making the system work). But if the goal is “actionable intelligence” against anyone who is or might some day be of interest, the more False Positives, the merrier.
That’s not a bug, it’s a feature.
Beyond a certain point, we’re sacrificing treasure, civil liberties and energy for not just zero gain but negative return, as the treasure squandered on the quixotic quest for zero risk carries a steep opportunity cost: what else could we have accomplished with that treasure, effort and energy?
Is that a bug or a feature?